January 2014 Rally as the start of a Bull Market

Almost every analyst in the gold community has been declaring the December 2013 lows the bottom for mining shares, and the January 2014 rally as the start of a bull market. We see this view as wishful thinking and premature. Gold bulls make the following supporting arguments:
1. Gold stocks have rallied 15+% from the December lows (we say: this is undeniable fact, but we see this 15+% up move more as a bear market rally and bear market rallies can fall apart quickly. Moreover, even if we are wrong, odds of a runaway bull market at this time are low, and we will find a more favorable risk/reward setup in which to make the change to a more bullish posture).






